Foreign Affairs
FBI Seizes Phone and Computer of Polymarket CEO After Accurate Trump Win Prediction

FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO, Sparks Political Controversy.
The FBI’s recent raid on Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, has ignited a firestorm of controversy. Federal agents seized Coplan’s phone and computer during a dawn raid at his Manhattan apartment, sparking accusations of “grand political theater” and “obvious political retribution”.
Polymarket’s Accurate Prediction
Polymarket had predicted Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election, with odds showing a 58.6% chance of winning on Election Day. This accurate forecast has raised questions about the motives behind the FBI’s raid. Was it a genuine investigation or a politically motivated move?
Reaction from the Tech Industry
The raid has drawn criticism from prominent figures in the tech industry, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Elon Musk. Armstrong warned that the move could backfire, making Polymarket even more powerful. Coplan himself has framed the incident as political retaliation, stating, “It’s discouraging that the current administration would seek a last-ditch effort to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents”.
Polymarket’s Defense
Polymarket maintains it is a “fully transparent prediction market,” charging no fees and allowing global observers to analyze market data. The company has faced regulatory challenges before, paying a $1.4 million fine in 2022 for operating without proper registration.
The investigation into Polymarket continues, with many questioning the FBI’s motives and the implications for the online betting landscape. As Coplan stated, “We are deeply committed to being non-partisan,” but the unfolding events suggest Polymarket’s future may be anything but neutral.